Are you adding value to your forecast?

Posted by Jacky Jain on 06-Nov-2017 15:59:54

In today’s fast moving world of growing customer expectations, shrinking lead times, reduced profit margins and inventories, Demand Planners have a big responsibility to act as the first gatekeeper to be able to foresee changes in Demand Signals and accurately make predictions for future. The margin for error is continuously decreasing, as any errors cause a major rippling effect on downstream processes. For example, a change of forecast bias by 5% may induce the following risks;

  • Reduced customer service levels
  • Increased lead times
  • Improper mix of inventory levels leading to possibility of stock outs or over stocked DCs
  • Added costs due to firefighting production builds and expediting fulfilment (air freight)

To cope up with this fast-paced supply chains, new metric must be adopted by demand planners all over the world. One of those is Forecast Value Add. I am going to take you thru details of Forecast Value add and explain how we can use this to improve the forecasting process. I would also be explaining examples using SAP Integrated Business Planning.

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Topics: IBP for demand, SAP IBP, Demand Planning, Integrated Business Planning, Forecast Value Add, FVA

Statistical Forecast Errors

Posted by Suresh Sellaiah on 14-Sep-2017 08:07:28

Forecast Accuracy defines how accurate the forecast works against the actual sales and is usually defined in percentage terms as;

Forecast Accuracy = 1 – Forecast Error

Forecast Error determines the deviation between the forecast and the actual demand/sales.

As Evan Esar’s saying goes "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today".

So, to be able to react quickly, it is very important to understand why this deviation has occurred. As there are various Error Measures available in software tools such as SAP APO or SAP IBP, it is vital to understand which error measure is applicable under what circumstances.

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Topics: SAP APO, Statistical Forecasing, Demand Planning, Forecast Error